Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 08/29/2012 -- The Philippines Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags short-term concerns about the impact on the Philippines' economic outlook of the government's continued inability to promote growth-positive initiatives.

The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Philippine retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of headwinds from an expected hard landing in China and weak growth in the US and Japan on the Philippine consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.

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The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Philippine retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.

The Philippines comes last in BMI's Asia Retail risk/reward ratings, although it outperforms slightly for rewards.

Among all retail categories, Mass Grocery Retail (MGR) will be the outperformer through to 2016 in growth terms, with sales forecast to increase by 44.4% between 2012 and 2016, from US$12.68bn to US$18.31bn as domestic operators start modernising their outlets and increase the variety of products on offer.

In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in market liberalisation, which may encourage global multinationals to enter the country.

Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:

- BMI expects a slight uptick in Philippine economic growth in 2012 as increased government spending and a moderate rebound in exports combine to return some momentum to the economy. However, the government's 5.0-6.0% growth target still appears to be extremely optimistic. We forecast the economy expanding by a more attainable pace of 3.9% in 2012, with exports posting modest growth of 2.2% amid a backdrop of weak external demand, and fixed capital spending growth remaining strong at 9.0%.
- Private consumption continues to be the bright spot in the Philippine economy. The category posted growth of 5.8% in 2011, accounting for 4.2 percentage points of the overall economy's expansion. The consumer phenomenon in the Philippines continues to be driven by strong remittance inflows, which grew by 7.2% in 2011 and have continued their strong trajectory in 2012. However, BMI believes that moderating overseas foreign worker remittance inflows as well as a weak domestic employment outlook will limit private consumption growth to 4.3% in 2012 and an average of 4.5% through 2015, making 2011's comparatively high figure an anomaly that is unlikely to signal a longer-term trend.

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