Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 11/09/2012 -- BMI View: 2012 Mixed For Freight Sector As Recession Bites

In our last quarterly report we maintained unchanged our growth forecast for the Netherlands in 2012, but noted that in the context of the eurozone crisis, and with elections due at home, downside risks were growing. Significant negatives are still present, so we are now acknowledging this, revising down our 2012 GDP forecast to -0.6%, compared to -0.3% previously. Various factors explain the reduction.

Recent data from the Dutch Central Bureau of Statistics shows that GDP was down 1.0% quarter-onquarter (q-o-q) in Q112, the third consecutive quarter of negative growth. Second, key export sectors continue to suffer from weak external demand. Third, we expect general elections in September to lead to the formation of a new governing coalition which will broadly follow the current interim administration's policy of front-loading fiscal austerity measures. As the country continues to wrestle with its fiscal deficit, household consumption will remain weak. Investment is also muted and unemployment is set to rise to 6.5% this year, up from 5.9% in 2011.

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While we expect the economy to contract, freight activity will be mixed, with some sectors growing and others contracting. The release of data for 2011 has caused some adjustments in our projections. Overall, however, the picture is one of modest performance, with some sub-sectors doing better than others. Each mode is affected by two different forces lower freight growth due to the local economy having sunk back into recession; and a second more volatile factor with the Netherlands acting as a 'gateway' to North East Europe and therefore being subject to ups and downs linked to the fate of the wider region.

Headline Industry Data

- Port of Rotterdam bulk throughput forecast for 2012: growth of 1.0% to 438.946mn tonnes. Container traffic to contract by 4.0% to 11.402mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs).

- 2012 Port of Amsterdam bulk throughput forecast to contract by 2.5% to 72.85mn tonnes. Container traffic to grow by 3.0% to 49.979TEUs.

- 2012 rail freight total tonnage volume growth to come in at 9.7% to reach 42.968mn tonnes.

- 2012 total trade growth forecast cut back to 2.8% in real terms, down from 3.0% in 2011.

- Export growth remains sluggish, at 2.5%, according to both 2011 estimates and 2012 forecasts.

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