Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 12/05/2012 -- BMI View: China will remain as one of the key emerging pharmaceutical market in Asia, if not the world as the country prepares itself for deeper medical reforms and the expansion of its National Essential Drug List. Key drivers of its growth include an increasingly ageing but affluent population and the transition towards a higher burden of non-communicable disease (eg, diabetes and cancer). We caution that the business environment will be less attractive to pharmaceutical manufactures as opposed to medical devices suppliers or private healthcare provides should government enforce further costcontainment policies.

Headline Expenditure Projections

- Pharmaceuticals: CNY432bn (US66.7bn) in 2011to CNY521bn (US$81.4bn) in 2012; +20.5% in local currency and +21.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly in line with Q312.
- Healthcare: CNY2313bn (US$358bn) in 2011 to CNY2,600bn (US$406bn) in 2012; +12.4% in local currency terms and +13.6% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly in line with Q312.
- Medical Devices: CNY117bn (US$18.2bn) in 2011 to CNY146bn (US$22.8bn) in 2012; +24.1% in local currency terms and +25.3% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly in line with Q312.

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Risk/Reward Rating: China maintains its rank at fourth out of the 18 key markets on our proprietary index with a score of 61.2. Its large population coupled with the country's commitment to provide healthcare for its people meant long-term growth potential for pharmaceutical and healthcare investors despite a relatively weak political climate compared with more developed countries.

Key Trends And Developments

- In August 2012, the Chinese government launched a new regulation on the manufacturing of excipients, or pharmacologically inactive substances that are used to carry the active ingredients of medication. The launch follows a scandal that involved contaminated medicine capsules. The new regulation is aimed at managing pharmaceutical excipients. Under the new regulation, the State Food and Drug Administration and its branches will increase standards for excipients while giving approvals to new drugs. The regulation will also need excipients to be registered and sanctioned. Meanwhile, their manufacturers will be required to secure production licences from authorities.
- The State Food and Drug Administration (SFDA) announced on August 3 2012 that 76 local officials failed to prevent and end the manufacturing of contaminated drug capsules in China., The officials, who have been punished, were working with drug supervision agencies in five provinces and the municipality of Chongqing. However, details regarding the punishments have not been disclosed.

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