Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 12/11/2012 -- BMI View: We expect difficult trading conditions to persist in many segments of Bulgaria's consumer electronics market in 2013. Retail sales remained in negative territory for much of 2012, declining 0.3%y-o-y in April 2012 from -1.8% y-o-y in March, and we see little scope for a pick-up in 2013.

Declining house prices, which create a negative wealth effect and extremely low consumer confidence (at -40.5% in May) are set to keep household spending subdued in the coming months. However growing affordability will drive consumer electronics purchases, with prices of key products such as notebooks and LCD TV sets dropping considerably. Growth areas will include smartphones, TV sets and tablets, with Bulgaria's migration to digital broadcast helping to boost sales in the AV segment.

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Headline Expenditure Projections

Computer sales: US$696mn in 2012 to US$713mn in 2013, +2% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms downwardly revised due to macroeconomic factors.

AV sales: US$381mn in 2012 to US$397mn in 2013, +4% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms upwardly revised, with TV sets expected to provide the most dynamic development.

Handset sales: US$264mn in 2012 to US$290mn in 2013, +10% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms upwardly revised, with smartphones the main revenue growth driver.

Risk/Reward Rating: Bulgaria's score was 40.7 out of 100.0. BMI expects rising penetration of consumer electronics devices such as smartphones and flat-screen TV sets and the country is in a favourable position to continue to improve its current sixth place ranking over time.

Key Trends & Developments

- BMI expects PC sales in 2012 to report a mild improvement on 2011, in volume terms. Moreover, there should be a consolidation of prices, as vendors promote higher-end models. Tablets enjoyed rapid growth in the Bulgarian market, with a 50-fold increase in sales of the devices at the Multirama chain of consumer electronics retail stores.
- Bulgaria's transition towards digital TV will reach an important milestone on September 1, 2013 when the country is due to switch off analogue broadcasting, and this should provide a boost to the AV market. The main AV growth area will be digital products such as flat-panel TV sets, which have become increasingly popular with consumers. As overall TV set sales have fallen, vendors and retailers have looked to product innovation to support revenue, with the introduction of LED-backlit TV sets, 3D TV and smart TV sets.
- Smartphones's share of revenue is projected to equal that of feature phones by 2013, and to reach 70% by the end of the forecast period. The share of subscribers to Bulgarian mobile operator Vivacom's network that use smartphones increased to 50% during 2011.

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