Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 12/24/2012 -- BMI's decision not to follow the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), which revised its forecast for passenger car sales upwards earlier in the year, has paid off, as the market declined 0.3% in September, marking the first decline since January. Tensions with Japan have seen Japanese carmakers reporting massive declines in sales, although other brands such as Hyundai Motor and Kia Motors have been on hand to capitalise. The effects on the overall market are still evident, however, and we stand by our full-year forecast for 8% total vehicle sales growth, compared with CAAM's revision to 11%.

We did make one revision to our forecasts in our last report that we are standing by and that is for commercial vehicle sales, which continue to drag on total industry sales. In September, commercial vehicle sales were down 7.6% to 301,800 units, taking the 9M12 total to 2.82mn units, down 8.82%. Our CV sales forecast stays at 3.828mn units, as there is little to suggest the segment will improve for the remainder of the year. This has also impacted our production forecast, which now reflects a 7.3% contraction in CV output in 2012.

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In response to the growing tension over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands dispute, Toyota announced in late September that it would completely halt production in China and instead choose to run down inventory for some of its models. We had previously warned that the company would face a temporary, but potentially, nasty shock to sales in China, as local consumers turned on Japanese brands. Even then, the violent reaction towards Japanese firms has been remarkable, begging the question of whether a return to normal operations will be possible over the medium term.

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