Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 12/27/2012 -- BMI maintains its below consensus 4.8% real GDP forecast for Peru. The country's strong domestic demand story will continue in 2012, although we expect a drag from net exports. Significant external risks to the economy means we cannot rule out a more pronounced slowdown in growth in the latter stages of the year, on the back of weaker global demand for the country's minerals and moderating global commodity prices.

The expected slowdown in the Chinese economy will drag on the country's exports, putting some downside pressure on volumes, particularly at dry bulk handling ports. That said, we believe President Ollanta Humala is likely to implement pro-growth policies which will translate into stronger public consumption, which should in turn result in stronger demand for imports of containerised goods, boosting port volumes and supporting our positive outlook for the Peruvian port sector.

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Headline Industry Data

- We are projecting box traffic at Callao to grow 6.9% in 2012 to 1.1mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs).
- We expect growth of 4.3% in total tonnage throughput at Callao to 19.3mn tonnes.

Key Industry Trends

Criticism Of Muelle Norte, Paita Port Concessions

The vice president of Peru's congress, Manuel Merino, has called for the cancellation of the concession contracts for Callao port's Muelle Norte terminal and Paita port following claims of alleged flaws in the tender processes. The country's private investment promotion agency, ProInversion, awarded the concession for Callao's Muelle Norte terminal to Dutch-based port operator APM Terminals in April 2011, while local concessionaire Terminales Portuarios Euroandinos (TPE) has operated Paita port since September 2009.

US$150mn Investment In Mineral Conveyor In Puerto Callao

The construction of a US$150mn conveyor belt to transport iron ore from mining areas to the port of Callao will be completed in September 2013. The project being carried out by Callao Transportadora Consortium (CTC) formed by the companies Impala, Perubar, Chinalco, El Brocal and Santa Sofia Ports.

Congress Asked To Declare Puerto Eten Port Proposal 'Of Public Interest'

A group of Peruvian lawmakers has sent to congress a bill aimed at declaring the building of a new port terminal of 'national interest' in Puerto Eten, in the northern Lambayeque region, through a public-private partnership (PPP). This is the first step in issuing a tender for the concession of the project. If the bill is approved the regional port authority will have the power to carry out the tendering process and award a private concessionaire the 30-year contract for the design, construction and management of the port infrastructure.

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