Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 01/03/2013 -- BMI View: A high birth rate due to limited birth control and the importance placed on having a large family by rural populations as a source of economic strength, as well as a growing disease burden, is likely to put further pressure on Kenya's healthcare infrastructure and human resources. In order to provide the country's citizens with sufficient care, it is vital that the government adopts a human resources strategy that incentivises medical workers so the sector can attract and retain staff.

Headline Expenditure Projections

- Pharmaceuticals: KES41.74bn (US$470mn) in 2011 to KES49.70bn (US$577mn) in 2012; 19.1% growth in local currency terms and 22.9% in US dollar terms.
- Healthcare: KES135.01bn (US$ 1.52bn) in 2011 to KES151.00bn (US$1.75bn) in 2012; 11.8% growth in local currency terms and 15.8% in US dollar terms.
- Medical devices: KES7.19bn (US$81mn) in 2011 to KES7.68bn (US$89mn) in 2012; 6.8% growth in local currency terms and 10.2% in US dollar terms.

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Risk/Reward Rating: In BMI's Q113 Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs), Kenya is 22nd in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region, above Uganda, Nigeria and Mozambique. A large counterfeiting industry, poor healthcare funding, corruption, regulatory deficiencies and a number of other issues will conspire to keep Kenya in a lowly position in the MEA matrix. Nevertheless, in comparison with many other African markets, most of which are not surveyed by BMI, Kenya offers more commercial promise and a more stable overall business environment.

Key Trends And Developments

- In September and October 2012, major hospitals in Kenya ran without key services as the Kenya Medical Practitioners Pharmacists and Dentists Union (KMPDU) called a strike over the government's failure to address concerns raised by healthcare workers.
- In October 2012, it was reported that the number of mental disorders leading to suicide is rising in Kenya. About 95% people committing or attempting suicide in the country suffer from a psychiatric condition, with depression being the most prevalent (80%) among suicides followed by schizophrenia (10%). An estimated 400,000 Kenyans suffer from mental disorders, accounting for 25% outpatient attendance in health facilities across the nation. The situation is compounded by the small number of mental health workers in the country: just 98 trained psychiatrists and 427 nurses.

BMI Economic View: We continue to believe the Kenyan economy will gather momentum after a slow first half in 2012 as domestic demand benefits from falling inflation and interest rates. Net exports are likely to remain a weak spot thanks to the ongoing malaise in Europe, one of the country's major trading partners. Our 2012 growth forecast remains 4.5%, while we believe GDP expansion will accelerate to 5.8% in 2013.

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