Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 01/09/2013 -- BMI View: We have revised down our estimate for the French construction industry in 2012, from an earlier forecast of 1.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth to a more cautious estimate of 0.6%. We remain positive about relatively stronger growth during the remainder of our forecast period - with growth forecast to average 1.0% y-o-y (in real terms) between 2013 and 2021; however, we highlight that the protracted resolution of the eurozone sovereign debt crisis and the limited scope for the government to spend on public projects could weigh on construction industry growth.

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The extent of gloom in the construction industry is visible from the fact that the industry value grew by a modest1.7% y-o-y and 1.5% y-o-y in nominal terms during Q112 and Q212, despite four consecutive years of contraction in the industry between 2008 and 2011. With the residential and non-residential construction sub-segment accounting for an estimated 82.3% of total construction industry value in 2012, it is unsurprising that the weaknesses in the housing sector are dampening growth in the industry. As such, much of our optimism for the French construction industry comes on the back of growth in the infrastructure industry, which we forecast to growth by an average 4.9% y-o-y between 2013 and 2021. This will increase the share of infrastructure industry value in the total construction industry from an estimated 17.7% in 2012 to 24.6% by end-2021.

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