Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 02/12/2013 -- Core Views

Growth will pick up significantly in 2013 compared to 2012 as household consumption and foreign investment continue to improve. Real GDP expansion in 2013 will remain below trend, however, as lending costs will remain high into over the beginning of the year.

Political unrest in the form of peaceful demonstrations will persist over the medium term and tensions regarding Uganda's role in the region are on the rise. Neither issue poses a significant security risk to the country.

Major Forecast Changes

We have downgraded our forecasts for 2013 real GDP growth to 6.1%, from 6.8% previously, due to the ongoing high cost of borrowing, which will constrain domestic investment.

We have made some minor adjustments to Uganda's balance of payments outlook, due to the recent release of lacklustre remittance data.

Key Risks To Outlook

Weather always poses risks to our outlook, as Uganda is heavily reliant on rain-fed agriculture. Adverse weather conditions could seriously hamper economic output, while favourable weather could boost productivity.

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If there are further delays to oil production, or if the industry moves more quickly than expected, we would adjust our forecasts accordingly.

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