Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 03/05/2013 -- BMI View: The Australian agriculture sector is still recovering from a decade of subdued production growth due to extreme weather and a lack of investment. The industry is expected to remain buoyant in 2012/13, largely supported by export demand from Asia and higher prices for grains and oilseeds. Crop exports are expected to outperform livestock as demand slows on the back of higher prices and greater price sensitivity for those products.

Key Forecasts

- Beef production growth to 2016/17: 9.0% to 2.3mn tonnes. We expect Australia to remain a significant exporter of the meat over the long term despite growing competition from the US.
- Sugar production growth to 2016/17: 31.5% to 4.9mn tonnes. Industry consolidation will encourage economies of scale and will very likely boost output over the forecast period.
- Milk production growth to 2016/17: 6.0% to 10.1mn tonnes. Improved economies of scale will support the growth of milk production in order to meet growing export demand.
- 2013 real GDP growth: 0.9%, down from 2.1% in 2012. Forecast to average 2.4% from 2012 to 2017.
- 2013 consumer price index: 1.4%, down from 1.6% in 2012. Forecast to average 2.2% from 2012 to 2017.
- 2013 central bank policy rate (end of period): 2.50%, down from 3.00% in 2012.

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