Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 07/19/2013 -- Mobile subscriber numbers continue to post strong growth in Iran, with the country's young population increasingly adopting mobile technology. But accurate data about the size and scope of Iran's telecommunications data is limited - only MTN reports subscriber numbers on a regular basis, and with sanctions weighing heavily on the economy there are few incentives to invest. The government holds a tight control on the market, and as such, network development lacks investment. That said, there is considerable potential for growth, if sanctions are lifted, in both mobile and wireline technology.

Key data

- MTN revealed that it had 40.502mn subscribers at the end of Q412.
- MTN ARPU fell to US$3.9 in the fourth quarter of 2012.
- Besides MTN, there has been no new data released by the ITU or other operators, and therefore new data in our Q313 report are based on BMI estimations.
- Mobile subscriber numbers saw the pace of growth decline in H213 - averaging 1.65% per quarter in Q312 and Q412 - compared to average q-o-q growth of 3.7% in H112.

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Risk/Reward Ratings

Iran plummeted to the bottom of our regional Risk/Reward Ratings this quarter, with a decline in its Industry Rewards and Country Risks score taking it to 15th out of 15 markets. In terms of Industry Risks, the data market is held back by exclusivity granted to Tamin Telecom for 3G network usage. In terms of Country Risks, continued sanctions are affecting the economy.

Key Trends And Developments

In February 2013, the government granted Tamin Telecom exclusive rights to 3G network services until 2014, extending the current agreement for one year. We believe this decision will hold back investment in the data market.

South Africa's MTN Group announced in February 2013 that it had been cleared of accusations that it bribed Iranian officials in a bid to gain a mobile licence for operations in the country. In April 2013, Iran's government announced its plans to launch its own communications satellite within five years. The satellite will show five local TV channels.

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