Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 08/14/2013 -- BMI remains optimistic toward Mexico's long-term growth outlook, forecasting real GDP growth to average 4.0% between 2013 and 2022 on the back of Mexico's booming manufacturing sector, increasingly strong private consumer and favourable demographics. That said, we believe that the ability for Mexico to reverse its severe macroeconomic imbalances and generate the robust growth necessary to propel it to 'developed market' status still hinges on the passage of substantive energy sector reform.

We have modestly revised up our 2013 real GDP growth forecast, from 3.4% to 3.6% to take into account potential for a stronger export and investment picture, in light of our recent upward adjustment to US

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Headline Industry Data

- Rail freight tonnes forecast to grow 4.5% in 2013, to reach 118mn tonnes
- Road freight tonnes forecast to grow 3% in 2013, to reach 539mn tonnes.
- Air freight tonnes/km forecast to grow 9% in 2013, to reach 1.5mn tonnes/km.
- Port of Manzanillo total tonnage growth in 2013 is estimated to hit 7.2% growth to reach 29mn tonnes.

Key Trends And Developments

North American Surface Trade Down 2.1% In February 2013

Surface trade between Canada, Mexico and the US declined by 2.1% year-on-year in February 2013, reports Transport Topics. The value of trade between the members of the North American Free Trade Agreement fell to US$72.6bn in February 2013, a 1.9% decline from the previous month.

US Court Upholds Mexican Truck Driver Decision

The US Court of Appeals has upheld a decision to allow Mexican truck drivers to cross the US border in order to deliver goods, reports the Journal of Commerce. The court ruled that Mexican commercial drivers' licences were valid for use despite a challenge by the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association.

Northern States Continue To Invest In Transport Network

Upside risk is presented to our growth forecasts for two Mexican ports, Altamira and Tampico, as the state government for Tamaulipas has announced a massive forthcoming investment in the facilities. The investment will not only focus on the ports themselves but also their connecting infrastructure.

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