Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 09/10/2013 -- The Slovenian Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags up short-term concerns about the impact of continuing fiscal austerity on Slovenia's economic outlook, and the increasing likelihood that the country will need external financial assistance to support its ailing banking sector.

We examine how best to maximise returns in the Slovenian retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explore the impact of decreased demand for imported goods on the part of Slovenia's major eurozone trading partners on the Slovenian consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term. The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by leading players in the Slovenian retail sector as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.

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Slovenian per-capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by just 5% through to 2017, compared with a regional growth average of 37%. The country comes third out of 10 in BMI's Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) Retail Risk/Reward Ratings, where it performs better in terms of risk.

Among all retail categories, mass grocery retail (MGR) will be the outperformer through to 2017 in growth terms, with sales predicted to increase from US$5.17bn in 2013 to US$5.78bn by 2017, a rise of 11.8%. The country has experienced rapid growth in discounting, with hypermarket sales forecast to outperform the rest of the MGR sector between 2013 and 2017, rising 14.7% to US$2.84bn. MGR growth through to 2017 will be boosted by new store openings, expansion of product ranges and the increased consumer numbers gained through the closure of smaller independent outlets.

Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts and views:

- After GDP growth came in at a disappointing -2.3% in 2012, we have lowered our forecast for growth in 2013 to -2.3%, from a previous -1.8%. This downgrade comes in light of the political crisis that led to the collapse of the government in late February and the implications this has for future policymaking at a critical time. We do not expect a return to positive growth until 2015.
- Household spending, which accounts for 57% of GDP, fell by 2.9% in 2012, significantly below the 0.1% contraction registered during the recession in 2009. The austerity measures imposed throughout the year by the outgoing government impacted on household wealth (via cuts in public sector salaries and to social benefits), while the deepening recession and rising unemployment hit consumer confidence.

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