Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 09/27/2013 -- BMI View: Thailand remains driven by a strong demand growth for both oil and gas which far outweigh domestic production. With no scope for the country to become self sufficient, it will be critical to develop the necessary import infrastructures and to maximise the country's below ground potential. With several delays already affecting the planned 21st licensing round, we do not expect the current slowdown in production to revert soon. Despite an uptake in exploration activities throughout H1 2013, an offshore pipeline oil spill which occurred in late July creates large risks of opposition to offshore exploration by a population already concerned by the risks it creates for the country's tourism industry.

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The main trends and developments we highlight in the Thai oil and gas sector are:

- An oil spill in late July from a PTT-owned offshore pipeline near the island of Koh Samet could be a game changer for Thailand. The country has already experienced opposition to further offshore exploration due to the environmental risks it generates for the tourism industry, and we could expect this event to revive such protests in the coming months and further postpone the long-delayed 21st licensing round.
- Liquid hydrocarbons production has been excessively high compared to the country's proved reserves of 450mn barrels (bbl) in 2012; half oil, half condensate. We expect production to slow down from an estimated 330,700 barrels per day (b/d) in 2012 to about 268,000b/d in 2017. In the meantime, reserves will fall progressively to 307.7mn bbl in the same year.
- Oil consumption rose from 411,000b/d to 808,000b/d between 1990 and 1997, before the Asian crisis triggered a collapse and consumption sunk to 701,610b/d in 2001. Demand has been on a generally upward trend ever since and hit around 1.04mn b/d in 2012. BMI is assuming 2-3% average annual growth to 2017, which suggests consumption of 1.17mn b/d, rising to 1.34mn b/d by 2022.
- UAE based Mubadala Petroleum is due to start production at its Manora field on schedule throughout 2014. This will bring a well-needed additional 15,000b/d of liquid production to the country's falling output.
- We forecast gas production to increase from 36.6bcm in 2012 to between 39.0bcm and 41.0bcm between 2017 and 2019, and to start falling afterward. Reserves will continue their downward trend to reach 266bcm in 2022, from 310bcm in 2012.
- The Thai government revised its energy mix target to rely more on gas imports at the expense of coal and nuclear. We therefore see gas consumption to continue increasing significantly throughout the decade, from about 48.4bcm in 2012 to nearly 80.0bcm in 2022.

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