Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/30/2013 -- As a result of a newly-downgraded forecast for economic growth in 2014/15 and a slow recovery thereafter, BMI made some small downward adjustments to our five-year forecast 2013-2017 for French IT spending. We still expect spending to increase by 2.8% in 2013 to EUR35.6bn as we had already factored in most of the current economic and sectoral headwinds. However, we expect a smaller 5.4% increase in spending overall in 2014 as the economic environment slowly becomes more conducive and as businesses can no longer defer much-needed IT upgrades. On the hardware front, continued demand for tablets will keep PC sales buoyant, while migration to cloud-based platforms will drive demand for servers and datacenter facilities. Local and global investors alike are expected to benefit from the acceleration in IT spending foreseen in the medium term.

Headline Expenditure Projections

- Computer Hardware Sales: EUR7.6bn in 2012 to EUR7.8bn in 2013, then EUR8.8bn in 2017 with CAGR of 4.7% 2013-2017 in local currency terms. While desktop and notebook sales have experienced a sharp decline, this is compensated for by the growth in tablet sales.
- Software Sales: EUR10.4bn in 2012 to EUR10.7bn in 2013, then EUR13.2bn in 2017 with CAGR of 4.9% 2013-2017 in local currency terms. Windows 8 upgrades, and later the removal of support for XP, will see higher sales in operating systems, while efficiency-improving enterprise software will remain in high demand.
- IT Services Sales: EUR16.6bn in 2012 to EUR17.1bn in 2013, then EUR21.5bn in 2017 with CAGR of 5.3% 2013-2017 in local currency terms. Cloud computing is expected to be the key growth driver for IT services spending, with the regional growth trend supplemented by the presence of national cloud computing providers.

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Risk/Reward Rating

France's score is 77.5 out of 100.0. France ranks third in our latest Europe RRR table, behind the UK and Germany.

Key Trends & Developments

Data show that there were further sharp declines in the sales of desktop PCs and notebooks in France in Q213. As before, the fall in sales volumes was sharper here than in the UK and Germany, adding weight to our view that economic weakness is a major inhibiting factor for the sector. That said, tablets continue to sell well, despite the poor economic climate. Local manufacturer Archos is moving into the higher-end premium tablet market later in 2013, suggesting the low-cost low-end market has matured. Whether consumers are still prepared to pay for very high-end products such as Apple iPads and assorted vendors' ultrabooks remains to be seen. Usage of Windows 8 appears to have ramped up, despite reports that Microsoft's own Surface tablet and hybrid have sold poorly.

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