Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 01/01/2014 -- With production in steady decline and few major projects expected to come on-stream over the next few years, the Republic of Congo (RoC)'s upstream oil outlook does not inspire much confidence. However, Eni's vast oil sands project in the country's south could offer some long-term opportunities. If this project is realised, this would be the first of its kind on the continent.

The main trends and developments for the RoC's oil and gas sector are:

- BMI expects crude and liquids production to decline steadily due to most of the production coming from mature fields and the lack of new projects coming on stream. We see liquids production falling from an estimated 292,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2012 to just under 270,000b/d in 2022. This relatively gradual decrease is explained by a small number of new projects coming on-stream, offset by a steady decline rate in mature field output.
- Refined products consumption of crude is likely to rise at an annual rate of 7% from 2012 to 2022. We therefore anticipate that consumption will rise from an estimated 12,000b/d in 2012 to just under 24,000b/d by 2022.
- BMI forecasts that gas production will increase from an estimated 1.4bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2012 to 4.8bcm by 2022. Domestic gas use will be boosted by the implementation of enhanced oil recovery techniques that include the reinjection of gas in mature fields to improve natural lift. Gas demand is set to rise at an average annual growth rate of 14%. This is explained by the country's strong expected macroeconomic expansion.
- congolese crude reserves are likely to start declining from their 1.60bn barrels (bbl) peak of the 2007-2013 period. Unless substantial discoveries are made, new deepwater basins opened or oil sands resources proven to be commercially viable, current discovery rates would see reserves falling to 1.5bn bbl in 2017 and then to 1.0bn bbl by 2022.
- In the downstream sector, the authorities have struggled to modernise CORAF, the country's sole refinery. Despite an US$868mn investment deal signed with Saudi Arabia's Rawabi Holding Company in February 2008 to increase capacity at the plant to 100,000b/d, there has been no sign of upgrade at the plant. We have not factored any expansion in our forecasts and we see capacity stagnating at 21,000b/d with an average utilisation rate of 65.8% throughout the decade.

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