Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 02/02/2015 -- We continue to favour the Tanzanian sugar and coffee industries over the medium term owing to the potential for growth on the back of strong investment in capacity. The grain industry in Tanzania will remain less competitive than in other countries in the region, particularly South Africa and Zambia, and we see little potential for the country to become a major grain exporter.

Key Forecasts

- Sugar production growth to 2017/18: 10.0 % to 341 ,000 tonnes. Increased investment in the sector as well as booming consumption on the back of growing confectionery and soft drinks demand will support growth.
- Corn consumption growth to 2018: 7.3 % to 5. 4 mn tonnes. A combination of lower average prices and rising living standards is expected to drive corn consumption growth.
- Coffee production growth from 2013/14 to 2017/18: 31.3 % to 1.1 mn 60kg bags. The sector is benefiting from investment in disease-resistant trees, and from incentives for small producers.
- 201 5 real GDP growth: 6.5% year-on-year (y-o-y), stable compared with the 2014 level; forecast to average 6.7% over 2013-2018.
- 2015 c onsumer price inflation: 6.0% average (down from 6.5% average in 2014).
- BMI universe agribusiness market value: 2.5 % y-o-y increase to USD3.2 bn in 2014/15, forecast to average growth of 3.2% per year between 2014/15 and 2017/18.

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Industry Developments

We forecast corn production in Tanzania to come in at 5.0mn tonnes in 2014/15, a decline of 6.6% y-o-y. Lower yields owing to unfavourable weather and lower input use has damaged the country's grain crop over the last couple of years.

Similar to many other Sub-Saharan African nations, we do not expect Tanzania to significantly improve its grains output via improved yield growth. Furthermore, lower average corn prices relative to the last few years will discourage significant plantings growth.

In contrast to the general optimism...

The Tanzania Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Tanzania Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
- Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI?s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wider agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market?s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.

- Consumption Forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
- Production Forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI?s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
- Trade Forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country?s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
- BMI?s Forecasts are accompanied by a Risks-to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI?s Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

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