Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 02/03/2015 -- The Venezuelan defence sector is set to continue to be the largest in Latin America in terms of expenditure, which we project at USD3.5bn in 2015. However, in terms of production Venezuela will remain an insignificant player in the world arms market. Although falling oil prices are set to lead to budget cuts, we believe that military spending will be maintained.

Venezuela relies on oil export receipts to fund government spending, and rapidly falling oil prices in the final months of 2014 heighten the existing risks from economic mismanagement and political instability. While we estimate a decline in GDP growth of 2.5% in 2014, and believe a recessionary environment will prevail in 2015, we do not believe that the government will default in the coming year at least. Moreover, the defence budget will continue to rise despite inevitable budget cuts. We forecast defence spending to reach the USD6bn mark in 2019. This view is reinforced by the military's influence in government affairs and the fact that it is in President Nicol?s Maduro's interest to keep the military on side in the face of his waning popularity.

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Venezuela is set to remain an insignificant player in the global arms market. In the absence of a domestic defence manufacturing sector, it relies on imports. Although the country has developed a number of successful international partnerships, for example with Russia and China, Venezuela suffers from a US embargo of arms deals, limiting its access to cutting-edge technology.

Venezuela's weapon's imports will continue on an upward trajectory, with defence expenditure set to increase from USD3.5bn in 2015 to USD6.1bn in 2019. Arms and ammunition imports will increase by an annual average of 2.7% over the forecast period, from USD9.5mn to USD10.6mn in real terms.

Venezuela's anti-US foreign policy may start to become an impediment to foreign-sourced funding and arms procurement, as ally Iran moves towards a tentative detente with the West....

The Venezuela Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.

BMI's Venezuela Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Venezuelan defence and security industry.

Key Benefits

- Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Venezuela to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Venezuelan defence and security market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Asia defence and security sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Asia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

Global and Regional Political Outlooks

A strategic overview of the world?s major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict, or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world?s ?wild card? low-probability high-impact risks.

SWOT Analysis

Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

- Defence Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and USDbn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure per capita (USD); defence budget (local currency and USDbn).
- Armed Forces (to 2012): Manpower available for military service, manpower fit for militaryservice, army personnel, navy personnel,air force personnel, total armed forces, (?000) (% population).
- Arms Trade: Arms and ammunition exports and imports (USDmn); bombs, grenades and missiles exports and imports (USDmn); revolver and pistol exports and imports (USDmn); weapons excluding guns and swords exports and imports (USDmn).

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